Forecasting Container Cargo Throughput in Ports

At the time of writing this thesis, no universal method for making forecasts on container cargo throughput in seaports is conducted by consultancy firms and other interested parties. This report gives an overview of the different models used for freight modelling. These models are based on the four step approach that is used in modelling demand for passenger transport: production and attraction, distribution, modal split and assignment to the transport network. Based on this overview, essential elements of a good forecasting method are identified. These are a model to determine the generation and distribution of freight flows and a model to explain port choice and competition. The input and output of these models should be evaluated using expert and commodity specific knowledge, resulting in possible modification of the results. Case studies on different port categories - i.e. transhipment, import-export, Greenfield, Brownfield, well-developed and less-developed economies - are used to illustrate the factors that explain the fluctuations of container cargo throughput volumes in practice. These findings have possible implications for the optimal set of variables and/or port choice model used. The purpose of this thesis is to provide a solid basis to develop an integrated and universal forecasting method.