The influence of personal characteristics and reference dependence in risky decision-making for a high-stakes game show

This paper takes a look at the decision-making of contestants in the game show “De Postcode Loterij Miljoenenjacht”, the format that is also known as “Deal or No Deal” in countries outside The Netherlands. I have sampled 41 episodes looking for differences in decision-making caused by gender and age. No significant effects were found but this might be related to the fact that the semi final has characteristics of a “selection round”. In addition I looked for signs of reference dependence in the data. The data showed “Winners” and “Losers” were less likely to deal compared to their “Neutral” counterparts. This proves that the course of the game is relevant to what decision a contestant will make at the end of the round. My theory for “Winners” not only includes effects of reference dependence but also the overvaluation of small probabilities.