The Effect of drought on Internal Migration

This paper investigates the effect of environmental aspects on internal migration flows in Brazil, focusing specifically on drought. Internal migration in Brazil is analyzed by using bilateral migration rates between states. The palmer drought severity index is used as a measurement of drought. The results show that drought has a significant effect on inter-state migration flows in Brazil. An increase in drought in the state of origin or a decrease in drought in the state of destination increases bilateral migration at a decreasing rate. Two other environmental variables that are analyzed are land degradation and deforestation. Based on the results of two different measures of deforestation, the suggestion was made that in general out-migration decreases with deforestation due to increased work-opportunities. However when only deforestation because of agricultural land expansion is considered, this effect will not exceed the negative effects of deforestation. Concerning land degradation, no clear evidence was found for its expected effect on migration.