The Impact of Economic Crisis on Ports in Post - crisis Period

Port plays an important role in economic development in a region. The cargo throughput as an indicator of port development has been widely researched for investment, policy making and strategic planning. In order to illustrate the port development in the post crisis time, the cargo throughputs of ports of Antwerp, Hamburg and Rotterdam are estimated and forecasted in this study. The cargo throughput series are estimated and forecasted through linear regression models, time series models and VEC models. Among all models applied in this study, VEC models show best forecast among the models for the lowest prediction errors. The forecasted cargo throughputs from VEC models are used to illustrate the impact of economic crisis. The cargo throughput gap between Rotterdam and Antwerp is not significantly changing in the crisis period and in the post-crisis period, suggesting the benefits Rotterdam gained during economic crisis is able to last for relatively long time. Meanwhile, the cargo throughput gap between Rotterdam and Hamburg is significantly decreasing, suggesting port of Hamburg is recovering from the crisis, and the benefits Rotterdam had from crisis is diminishing. Moreover, the research results show that GDP is an important determinant of cargo throughput of a port. The GDP from neighboring counties may also have impact on the cargo throughput of a port. The study finds that the cargo throughputs are dependent to each other. The impacts of other ports are found significant in both short run and long run. The results reveal a short run independent relationship between Rotterdam and Antwerp. Yet in the long run, Antwerp benefits from the development of both Rotterdam and Hamburg. Short run complement competition, long run substitutive competition is found between Rotterdam and Hamburg.