The effect of awards on success: an empirical study to the longevity of musicals on London's West End

This research analyzes musicals on London’s West End that were open during the period 2005-2013 to investigate factors that relate to the longevity of shows. The Cox proportional hazards model is used. Winning primary Olivier Awards and WhatsOnStage Awards are associated with a longer run for a show. Being nominated for a WhatsOnStage Award and then losing is related to a shorter post award run. The results for the percentage of subsidies a theatre receives, and whether a show is a revival or a borderline case are mixed. No firm conclusions can be drawn. Though it seems that receiving subsidy, being a revival or a borderline cases influences the longevity negatively. The review in The Guardian, the opening month and whether a show is a transfer from Off West End are not predictive for longevity. The models testing for the WhatsOnStage Awards were stronger and more convincing. Next to that, a limited amount of variety was found compared to other cultural industries. So, the data showed that the musical market is more dominated by a common-opinion regime than the expert-opinion regime. This raises critical questions about the purpose awards serve within the musical market.