The impact of global refinery upgrade programs on the fuel oil throughput in Port of Rotterdam

With roughly 50 Mt, fuel oil is the most important oil product flowing through the Port of Rotterdam (PoR). So far fuel oil throughput seems to increase yearly, with Russia as the most important origin for the imports. But for some years now PoR is anticipating the commencement of Russian refinery upgrades. Once completed these upgrades are expected to seriously impact the amount of Russian fuel oil exports and therefore the fuel oil throughput in PoR. This research aims at estimating the potential impact of the Russian refinery upgrades on the fuel oil throughput in PoR. This is done through qualitative research. In addition the author constructed a quantitative model in order to forecast the global developments in oil product supply and demand for 8 different regions, up to 2025. This second step allowed for a broader identification of threats and opportunities to the oil product throughput in PoR and potential alternatives to the expected decline in fuel oil throughput. Results from the qualitative research indicate a drop of more than 50% in Russian fuel oil exports by 2020, compared to the 57 Mt in 2012. And due to the distribution of Russian exports between the Baltic Sea ports and Black Sea ports the supply of Russian fuel oil to PoR could drop even more drastically. Simultaneously the vastly increasing demand for medium distillates in Europe, combined with growing surpluses on medium distillates in regions as the ME, FSU and North America create new opportunities for PoR. This research concludes with a short management advice to PoR on how to anticipate to these developments.