Reference-Dependence in Dutch Football

The purpose of this thesis is to look into the relationship between uncertainty of the outcome of Dutch football games and the stadium attendance of those particular games. Two main theories are proposed by previous literature as to what this relationship looks like. The ' classic' uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH) suggest that more uncertainty yields more stadium attendance. A model with reference-dependent preferences coupled with loss aversion proposes the opposite, i.e. less uncertainty yields more stadium attendance. Three Dutch football clubs provided attendance data for the analysis of this thesis, namely FC Groningen, Heracles and PSV. Betting odds are used to calculate the uncertainty of outcome. The estimated random effects tobit model provides evidence in favour of the UOH. The maximum stadium attendance is achieved at the uncertainty level where the home team is three times as likely to win as the away team. Other significant influences on stadium attendance are the away team, the league rank of the away team, derby matches, renovation of the stadium, the day of the stadium, the day of the game, the month in which the game is played and the season.