The effects of a Numerus Fixus on enrollment and first-year success in higher vocational education

Higher education institutions (HEIs) in the Netherlands have introduced selection policies at an increasing level since the early 1970s to select students into their study programs. A cap on the number of enrollments – also known as a ‘Numerus Fixus’ – enables HEIs to reject those students that do not fulfil the admission criteria as stated by the HEI. This study combines student-level data of first-year students in higher vocational education (‘HBO’) and program-level data regarding selection policies of HEIs to examine what the introduction of a Numerus Fixus implies for 1) enrollment levels, 2) first-year success – as measured by switch- and dropout rates – and 3) the composition of enrollments. It builds on a standard difference-in-differences design by following the ‘synthetic control method’ as formulated by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003). This study confirms that the introduction of a Numerus Fixus mechanically leads to a lower level of enrollments, as fewer students are allowed to enroll into the study program. Furthermore, the introduction of a Numerus Fixus leads to lower dropout- and switch rates and has a positive effect on the share of enrolled female-, native- and MBO students. This primarily goes at the expense of the share of non-Western- and HAVO students.