Is it possible to forecast the short-term supply of second-hand containers using quantitative forecasting techniques?

This paper analyses the possibility to use quantitative forecasting techniques to forecast the supply of second-hand containers. The main goal of this research is advising CARU containers, a world-wide operating container trader, in how to deal with their dependency on their main supply-partner MSC. It starts with a literature review about forecasting which describes the need for forecasting, the difference between judgemental and quantitative forecasting and different forecasting techniques. As this thesis is written for CARU containers, the role of CARU in the second-hand container market is analysed and the way they operate is described. Based on interviews with employees and market experts the factors that influence the supply of second-hand containers are analysed. The main conclusion made is that forecasting the supply of second-hand containers by making use of quantitative techniques is not possible on a global level. A lack of available data and the way the second-hand container market is constructed, with huge geographical differences, leaded to this conclusion. However, a case study about the USA market, in which the geographical level is narrowed down, showed that it is possible to get useful insights based on quantitative data when there is enough data available. Besides the quantitative analysis, a second case study further analyses the possible future developments regarding CARU’s main partner MSC and gives a recommendation about how to deal with the dependency on them.