The relationship between live attendance and uncertainty of outcome in European football

The aim of this master thesis is to investigate the relationship between live attendance at sports events and the uncertainty of match outcome. The two main theories that are discussed are the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH) and the reference-dependent preferences with loss aversion. The UOH states that people who visit sports events prefer to see tight matches. The reference-dependent preference with loss aversion model states that people who visit sports events prefer to see a match with a more certain outcome. To see which theory applies to European football an empirical research using a Tobit model is done with data of the UEFA Champions League. As the UEFA Champions League consists out of a group stage and a knock-out stage, two separate analysis are done. The results show that there is no evidence for either theory for supporters visiting matches in the group stage. The results show that supporters visiting knock-out stage matches prefer to see tight matches and this evidence thus supports the UOH.