The Effect of Climate Change on Migration - Predictions for the Twenty-First Century

In this thesis, the effect of climate change on migration is analyzed with the use of a pseudogravity model. First, the relationship between migration and precipitation anomalies, temperature anomalies, natural disasters, and sea level rise is discussed. Then, a simulation is used to predict the average bilateral migration rate for the period 2046 to 2065 and the period 2081 to 2100. In this thesis, it is found that climate change has a heterogeneous effect on migration. On the one hand, precipitation anomalies have a positive effect on migration while on the other hand temperature anomalies and natural disasters have a negative effect on migration. However, this relationship is different for certain groups of countries depending on their temperature and groundwater level. With the use of the simulation, it is predicted that the average bilateral migration rate will decrease in the remainder of the twenty-first century if no mitigation and adaption take place. When there is climate change mitigation and adaption, the average bilateral migration rate is expected to increase.