The dynamic effects of car ownership determinants in the Netherlands

This thesis discusses the dynamics of some main household car ownership determinants in the Netherlands between 2005 and 2015. First of all, a literature review is made to look for existing relationships and dynamic effects. Next, three models were created with household car ownership as dependent variable. The models were formed around the three main determinants: income, urban form and household composition. Adding a interaction between the determinant of interest and the year of observation, the dynamic effects were estimated with the pooled ordinary least squares method. The graphs show a dynamic effect for both income and household composition, where the income effect seems to follow the business cycle. Household composition showed decreasing importance in determining household car ownership. In contradiction, urban form showed no significant dynamic effect between 2005 and 2015. The author recommends further analysis with some model improvements to confirm found effects and find possible causes for the trends found. Also, other car ownership determinants might be interesting to check for dynamic effects. For example, parking supply and psychological variables regarding car ownership.