Exploring Consumer Preferences for Subscription Packages in Public Transport Using Smart Card Data

In this paper, consumer preferences for subscription packages in public transport are explored using smart card data. Furthermore, the influence of travel demand on subscription choice is investigated. Additionally, we analyze the effect of the travel demand expenses and the differences between consumers on the decision process. These effects are modeled with six different logit models and a hierarchy in the decision process has been taken into account. Estimation is done by maximum likelihood. Results are based on four years of smart card data from MyOV of 4379 individuals that traveled with the Dutch Railways for more than a year. Overall, we find that travel demand, historical and realized, is a strong indicator of subscription choice and that first class travelers differ in these preferences. In addition, consumer have an economic incentive when choosing their subscription. However, when this subscription is expensive, consumers are not good at predicting their expected expenses. This research attempts to fill a gap in current literature regarding the non-linear pricing plans in public transport.