Dividing the Watercourse

This study assesses the impact of power asymmetry and economic partnerships on outcomes of transboundary water conflicts. Outcomes to transboundary water conflicts is taken to mean the formation of a treaty, the extent a treaty is equitable and reasonable, the respectability of a treaty, and the intensity of the conflict. Power asymmetry is captured by the difference in riparian states’ capabilities and economic strength. Economic partnership is measured as the trade between the watercourse states as a fraction of their trade with the rest of the world. Other influencing factors – namely, water scarcity, diplomatic engagement, political tension, and regime similarities – are accounted for. The main results suggest that effects of power asymmetry and economic partnership play a role in certain aspects of the outcome of a transboundary water conflict, yet their effects can be influenced by other influencing factors. Neither power asymmetry nor economic partnership has an effect on the formation of a treaty or the extent the treaty is equitable and reasonable. Power asymmetry has a negative effect on the respectability of a treaty and a positive effect on the intensity of the transboundary water conflict. Economic partnership has a positive effect on the respectability of a treaty and a negative effect on the intensity of the conflict. However, its effect can be overridden by power asymmetry and other influencing factors.