Conflicts around the world and their effects on the oil price

This paper investigates the effects of various conflicts around the world associated with crude oil and their impact on the oil price.The examination occurs for both BRENT and WTI prices by implementing an event study methodology and a linear regression. Furthermore the conflicts are studied based on their characteristics, including time that took place, the type of conflict and region of the conflict. After the initial comparison the variable of previous oil exports from the region of the conflict is included in the regression.The findings of this thesis answers the question of the effect of conflicts in the oil price by presenting significant results. Moreover, the comparison between time periods indicate higher abnormal returns on the time frame after 2008. The comparison between types of conflicts indicate that while armed conflicts present high abnormal returns before the official start of the conflict the height of the cumulative abnormal returns are similar to armedconflicts in the end of the event window. The region of the conflict plays a more significant role for the WTI oil price rather for BRENT. Finally it is found that previous oil exports indeed have a highly positive and significant effect on the oil price, producing high abnormal returns.