Performance analysis of residential solar photovoltaic policies: A case study of Jakarta, Indonesia

Jakarta is Indonesia’s capital city and highest populated area, making it the largest electricity consumer in the country (Indonesian Ministry of National Development Planning, 2019). While Indonesia’s solar energy is estimated at approximately 207.9 GW, only 16.6 MW were produced from residential rooftop solar PV. Out of that portion, the Greater Jakarta area accounts to 0.06 MW, although the residential market takes up to 42% of national electricity sales, making it the highest market segment in energy consumerism in Indonesia (PLN, 2019; IESR, 2019; MEMR, 2019).

In 2014, the Indonesian government adopted Government Regulation No. 79/2014 on National Energy Policy, addressing the imperativeness to reduce reliance on non-renewable energy and increase renewable energy share by 29% in 2030. Further, the government issued MEMR Regulation No. 49/2018, which regulates affairs related to rooftop solar PV. Accordingly, the government also set solar energy targets of additional 1.045,06 MW and solar PV users by 522.532 households in Jakarta by 2028. However, despite Indonesia’s ambitious goals, residential solar energy development has not yet reached its maximum potential.

The combination of unsubstantial policy and general scepticism towards solar energy prevent the development of residential solar PV. For that reason, calculation on technical potential of residential solar PV power in Jakarta, scenario analysis on the performance of residential solar PV growth towards governmental targets, as well as market potential analysis on residential solar PV market in Jakarta is vital to analyse whether current residential solar PV policies has been successful in harnessing potential residential solar PV power in Jakarta. This research combines secondary data collection through desk research, and complementary primary data collection through questionnaire surveys. The obtained data are then analysed using constant- value method, forecasting tools, as well as descriptive analysis on Excel and SPSS.

This research found that existing residential solar PV policies are inadequate in harnessing potential residential solar PV in Jakarta as seen in the gap between current installed capacity compared to technical potential of residential solar PV capacity. Moreover, forecasts indicate that future trajectory of residential solar PV growth will be able to achieve one out of two governmental targets, indicating that current solar PV policies are suboptimal. Nevertheless, the study also identified a potential increase in market potential by 27% if policy changes such as providing incentives for residential solar PV users and increasing the spread of information on solar PV through mass media are conducted.