A thin red line1: Continuity and Change in the United States Foreign Policy

The election of Donald Trump has raised broad interest in the direction the United States foreign policy is taking, especially because of the promises Trump made during his campaign. This thesis thus adds to the literature which analyses continuity and change in US foreign policy by taking a case study approach, analysing the United States’ NATO policy over the mandate of President Trump. The objective is thereby threefold. First, show the alignment between campaign rhetoric and policy outcomes. Second, which of those elements constitute change compared to the previous two presidencies of the 21st century. Third, what factors explain these policy outcomes. The thesis therefore choses the causal-process tracing method in combination with the theory of neoclassical realism to answer the three questions. The main argument of the thesis is thus that President Trump tried to implement his main campaign promises in combination with the Alliance, but several factors stopped the President from completely following through with his convictions. Furthermore, President Trump has been very disruptive for the Alliance yet most of his policies have been part of US administrations NATO policies for years, they were just articulated differently. And finally, the structure of the United States institutions favours the strategic culture and the positions of the majority of the elites when it comes to institutionalized security priorities, which makes change even with a disruptive President unlikely.