Are regional trade agreements promoting infant industry development in Africa?

Many Sub-Saharan African countries are still among the least developed in the world. Therefore, the important task at hand is to find a solution for sustained economic development in these countries. For decades, experts have highlighted the importance of a developed industrial sector as a condition for sustained economic development. Currently, many of the industrial sectors in SSA are still ‘infant’, meaning that they are not globally competitive yet. It is therefore vital for these countries to escape the fate of producing merely primary goods, and to evolve into the production of more sophisticated, industrialized goods. As such, it is relevant to investigate whether the main tool which many Sub-Saharan African countries turn to for economic development, regional trade agreements (RTAs), contribute to the development of infant industries. This research is concerned with the trade provisions of RTAs, which are predominantly designed to liberalize trade between member states, whilst allowing for the protection of the region against the global markets. However, there is no consent in academic literature whether more liberalization or rather more protectionist trade provisions in RTAs will lead to infant industry development. Therefore, the research question of this study concerns itself with how the trade provisions of two African RTAs impact infant industry development in one of each its member states. The comparative case study approach allows for in-depth analysis of the cases and for context-sensitivity. A qualitative approach is used to answer the research question, applying co-variational analysis to compare two cases: Uganda and Cameroon. These two countries have been selected on the basis of methodological checks between the RTAs they are a member of, the East African Community (EAC) and the Communauté Économique et Monétaire de l'Afrique Centrale (CEMAC) respectively. Data is collected through semi-structured interviews with experts and through desk research. Throughout the discussion of the results, two theories of economic development will be referred to: neoliberalism and infant industry protection, each prescribing separate sets of assumptions about what the trade provisions of RTAs should ideally look like. The theoretical expectations about the empirical relation under study are tested against the two case studies. The results show that the trade provisions in both RTAs were overwhelmingly designed on neoliberal assumptions. However, in reality, the modus operandi of both RTAs turned out to be not as neoliberal as it appears in their design. In the EAC, significantly more of the envisioned trade liberalization was achieved than in CEMAC. Despite the trade liberalization that has been achieved in EAC by means of trade liberalization provisions, although still limited, infant industries have not developed significantly in Uganda. And, despite trade liberalization provisions by intent, but a reality of more economic protectionism of infant industries CEMAC, they have not developed significantly in Cameroon. The research concludes with policy implications, social implications, limitations, and policy recommendations.