Explaining Local Variation in Childcare Coverage

Using crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA), this thesis aims to explain local variation in childcare coverage in Italy and France. It is guided by the research question: Which (combinations of) conditions lead to comparatively high/low childcare coverage in Italian provinces and French departments? In order to answer the research question, the thesis reviews previous findings from the broader literature on local variation of welfare provision in Europe, focusing on childcare in Italy and France. It categorizes factors expected to affect childcare coverage into demand-side, supply-side, and contextual conditions. The various types of condition are linked to broader theoretical discourses with a view to formulate concrete expectations regarding their favorability or unfavorability for high childcare coverage. The theoretical framework accounts for system-specific features of each country’s childcare system, that is, a large private sector in Italy and a large childminding sector in France. The thesis then employs csQCA methods to identify necessary and sufficient conditions for comparatively high/low childcare coverage in Italian provinces and French departments. The main results are the identification of two contrasting sufficient paths to high childcare coverage in each country. In Italian provinces, a public path marked by high public childcare expenditure and a comparatively small private sector dominates. This path is linked to a left-leaning political orientation. In addition, there is a less common private path, marked by low public childcare expenditure and a large private sector. This path is linked to a right-leaning political orientation. The findings for Italy thus confirm a theoretically expected left-leaning preference for the public sector and a right-leaning preference for the private sector. In French departments, the predominant path is characterized by a large childminding sector and comparatively low poverty. The less common path is characterized by a smaller childminding sector and higher poverty, as well as high economic development and declining fertility. Findings for France show that a large childminding sector in high-coverage departments depends on favorable socioeconomic conditions due to higher user costs of childminders compared to public crèches. The alternative path further illustrates that in some cases the absence of a large childminding sector can be compensated for by two conditions in order to still achieve high coverage: (1) high economic development, which presumably leads to higher tax revenue and thus allows larger investments in public crèches, and (2) declining fertility, which decreases demand and therefore makes it easier to cover a larger share of the target population. In sum, system-specific features are thus key to understanding local variation in both Italy and France.