The Populist Puzzle: A cross-national analysis of how institutional characteristics shape the relationship between populist voting and political trust within Europe

The decline in political trust within Europe has come hand in hand with a surge of populism. The populist ideology consists of three core components: (1) distrust in the political elite, (2) a belief that society exists out of ‘the people’ and ‘ the elite’, and (3) the belief that the outcomes of politics should be the will of ‘the people’. People who vote for populist parties are believed to adhere to these core components of populism. This research aims to explain the variation in political trust among populist voters in Europe by linking the core concepts of populism to the institutional characteristics of proportionality, internal decentralization, and vertical decentralization. This is done by positing two exploratory, contractionary hypotheses about each institutional characteristic and its possible impact on the relationship between populist voting and political trust. By analyzing European Social Survey data from 21 European countries between the years 2004 and 2022, enriched with data from the Populist, Gallagher Index, and Decentralization Index through a multi-level regression analysis, I found support for the moderating effects of proportionality and internal decentralization on the relationship between populist voting and political trust. The findings indicate that populist voters have more political trust within disproportional systems with little internal decentralization. In the discussion, further research recommendations are suggested.