Unpacking the Impact of Democracy Aid: The role of civil society organisations in democratic transitions

Understanding ‘what works’ in democracy aid is highly relevant in the context of global democratic backsliding. However, to date evidence on the impact of democracy aid on democratisation remains controversial, due to contradictory findings, commensurability issues and difficulties in establishing causality (Qian, 2015). Additionally, few quantitative studies address the causal mechanisms through which democracy aid has an impact on democratisation. This study aims to fill this research gap by focusing more specifically on the role of civil society organisations (CSOs) in democratic transitions. This paper has two primary goals. Firstly, it aims to determine whether democracy aid channelled through CSOs has a positive effect on democracy levels in recipient countries, interacting with regime type. And secondly, to create a deeper understanding of the causality underlying this relationship, this research examines the mediating effect of two specific CSO mechanisms – namely public dialogue and civic engagement. Using a cross-country fixed effects generalised least squares panel regression and structural equation modelling, this study analyses democracy levels in 130 countries from 2004 to 2021. The results of this study indicate that democracy aid channelled through CSOs increases levels of democratisation in recipient countries. Additionally, an interaction effect was observed between democracy aid and regime type, which indicates that democracy aid is most effective in countries that are already (partly) democratic. Additionally, while CSO civic engagement shows a positive and significant mediating effect, the impact of CSO public dialogue is refuted. These findings underline the critical role of CSOs in promoting democratisation, suggesting directions for future research to further explore these mechanisms.