Refinancing needs and policy transmission: Tightening, easing, and corporate adjustment in Vietnam’s listed real estate sector

This thesis examines the impact of Vietnam's corporate bond policy tightening in 2022 and policy easing in 2023 on listed residential real estate developers, focusing on the heterogeneity of pre-policy refinancing needs, as represented by the ratio of short-term financial debt to total financial debt. Using the audited annual reports of 129 companies from 2015 to 2024, the analysis applies a difference-in-differences approach and an event-study design to study investment (change in inventories versus assets), leverage, debt maturity structure, liquidity (cash versus assets), net cash from financing activities, and interest coverage. Policy tightening is associated with stronger operating cash flows for firms with higher pre-policy refinancing needs, while policy easing is consistent with a modest increase in leverage and a trend toward shorter maturities for the same firms. Investment shows no short-term response. Robustness checks and placebo tests support these core results. The policy implications are to prioritize liquidity support during policy tightening and combine policy easing with maturity lengthening and refinancing risk-off measures, targeting firms with high short-term refinancing needs.