Between Stability and Uncertainty: How Economic Integration in Germany Shapes Return and Onward Migration Intentions of Ukrainian Refugees under the Temporary Protection Directive

This thesis explores how economic integration in Germany affects the return and onward migration plans of Ukrainian refugees under the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive. It is based on ten semi-structured interviews with refugees living in Germany. The study focuses on how job access, recognition of qualifications, and income security influence their decisions. Although many participants appreciated the stability of formal work, they also reported underemployment and loss of professional identity. Family responsibilities, legal uncertainty, and strong emotional ties to Ukraine also played a role in their future plans. The thesis uses several theories – such as the Aspirations-Capabilities Framework, the New Economics of Labor Migration, Integration Theory, Transnationalism, and Return Preparedness – to understand how personal goals, family needs, and legal status all shape refugee decision-making. The findings suggest that refugee policies should not focus only on labor market access but also support long-term integration and provide more legal certainty.