Asymmetric Crime Cycles: An Empirical Study

Following the extensive 50-year-old literature on the possible existence of a relationship between crime and unemployment, this thesis studies the effect of unemployment on crime rates with the primary goal to determine the presence of asymmetric crime cycles. This asymmetry means that the increase in crime rates during an economic recession is of greater magnitude than the decrease in crime rates during an economic recovery. This thesis should give the reader a good and easily explainable insight in the relation of crime and unemployment. Using a panel data estimation technique, this study uses highly spatial data obtained from different sources from within different countries. Regression estimates from the lowest geographical level show inconsistency across models and give no concrete answer to the main research questions. This is mainly due to insufficient data availability. Using data from higher spatial levels improved regression results and yielded some interesting results. Although there is a lack of consistency across models, there appears to be evidence for asymmetry in crime rates among males below 25 years in the crime categories theft and breaking and entering. Remarkable is the fact that for some conditions the results give indication for reversed asymmetry, where there is an increase in crime rates reported during an economic recovery which is of greater magnitude than the increase in crime rates during an economic recession.