The expected effect of Fyra on air transport – learning from the past experiences from ICE

The high-speed train Fyra was introduced to Schiphol on September 2009. Since then, there have been many discussions about the possible effects of Fyra on air transport. Some argued it would increase the air transport while others argued the different way. This paper will discuss the possible future effect of Fyra by comparing Fyra with the ICE for Frankfurt airport. ICE was introduced ten years earlier than Fyra, and Frankfurt airport has the similar size and function as Schiphol airport. A difference-in-difference (DID) estimation will be performed with Schiphol airport as a control group to address the effect of the ICE on air transport. By comparing Fyra to ICE with the result from the DID estimation, along with some evidences and past researches for both airport, it would be able to estimate the expected effect of Fyra on air transport: Fyra is expected to reduce the air transport, but it would be socially beneficial. Furthermore, the effect of Fyra on air transport will be less significant than the effect ICE.