Climate Change Adaptation Assessment

Climate change is the major threat of this time posing severe stress on human beings and also to the environment. The effect is global and unprecedented. It is projected to persist into the next century even after undertaking many efforts to lessen the Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. The least developed countries are most at risk, lacking in capacity to shield their cities. Bangladesh is one of the twelve countries most at risk for climate change. Even though Bangladesh's contribution to GHG emissions is one of the lowest in the world, it is still at high risk because of its disadvantageous geographical location, high population density and low topography. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is one of the largest mega cities of the world with a very high rate of urbanization. Climate change poses a risk to Dhaka mainly through flooding. Though flooding has a long history in this country, it has been exacerbated by the climate driven variability. The Eastern fringe of Dhaka is the study area and is a low lying area of Dhaka city, forming two thirds of Dhaka's drainage basin. According to the structural plan, it is a flood flow zone. In the process of urbanization, wetlands are being encroached upon which causes major water clogging leading to flooding. Moreover, the drainage system has not improved in pace with the high rate of urbanization. The study area has faced severe damage during several catastrophic floods in last few decades; almost the whole EFA was inundated. Dhaka West is protected, but Dhaka East, which is most at risk, is still unprotected from flooding. Though there are proposed measures to be undertaken for reducing the vulnerability of Dhaka EFA, it has still not been implemented. Therefore, the research aims to investigate the vulnerability of the Eastern fringe of Dhaka to flooding and to assess and prioritize the most effective adaptation measures for the area to the risks of flooding. In this study, climate change has been considered not only as an environmental problem but also a developmental issue. Theoretical concepts related to the topic have been analyzed by reviewing relevant literature. Different adaptation planning approaches, adaptation strategies and prioritization methodologies were also reviewed to find out the appropriate one for the research. This qualitative exploratory research holds the strategy of a holistic case study. The unit of analysis is the study area itself. The research was based on both primary and secondary data. Primary data has been collected by a questionnaire survey, experts' judgment, focus group discussions and direct observations. A purposive sampling method was adopted for selecting the experts and stakeholders, and sample inhabitants of the study area for the questionnaire survey were selected using a random sampling method. The data analysis methodology applied in this research is `Multi criteria analysis' which is also suggested by UNFCCC adaptation framework for LDCs. To meet the objective of investigating the vulnerability of the study area, vulnerability assessment has been conducted. Vulnerability is an accumulated outcome of three aspects, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Therefore, to investigate the vulnerability, exposure index of the study area to different types of flooding hazards have been identified based on the secondary data on the frequency, duration and spatial extent of different types of floods. It shows EFA is most exposed to riverine flooding. A sensitivity index was prepared based on the impacts of floods in the study area over from the last three decades. It was found that the water quality is the most sensitive sector of EFA to flooding. To identify adaptive capacity, a survey was conducted to identify the factors which determine adaptive capacity; i.e. demographic characteristics, occupation, education level, income level and existing infrastructure services of the study area. Taking into account, the dominant group in each considered factors for adaptive capacity and equal access to the existing infrastructure services; it was assumed that the whole study population bears the same adaptive capacity. A vulnerability index, based on the above mentioned three indices, showed that water quality was the most vulnerable capital asset of the study area to flooding. Infrastructure and trade were also extremely under threat due to flooding. All the existing proposed adaptation measures (i.e. flood embankment, construction and up gradation of storm sewer/drainage system, flood wall, raised road, protection of water retention areas and canal improvement) have been taken into account for assessment. Also based on the vulnerability assessment, two additional measures (i.e. enhancing emergency response mechanisms and early warning systems) were selected from the relevant cases having a similar context. Criteria to assess adaptation options were selected in a participatory way by the selected stakeholders of the study area as consensus through FGD. The main aspects that were considered during the assessment of adaptation options were decided by the stakeholders, they included: vulnerability, financial, environmental, socio political, macro economic, socio economic, institutional and technological aspects. The criteria resulted from the discussion under these aspects are vulnerability reduction, cost, enhancement of ecological condition, pubic and political acceptance, employment generation, achievement of MDG, institutional and technical capacity. The selected experts scored each adaptation option against the selected criteria. To ensure stakeholders' preferences in the process, weighting of each criterion has been done by the same stakeholder group. Thus, this interactive weighting method has been proved to be an effective way to legitimise the outcome. Then the expert score is combined with the weights of the criteria to get the final score. The prioritization of adaptation options is done based on this final score. It was found that the `Protection of water retention area' is the most effective option to be undertaken to reduce the vulnerability of the EFA to flooding. `Enhancing early warning systems' and `Canal improvements' were also identified as very effective options and flood walls were found to be the least effective ones. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the robustness of the results and incorporated the uncertainty and range of stakeholders' preferences. It showed that the results were quite robust with regard to the criteria weights. The research concludes by putting forward suggestions for further research.