“Assessing the impact of closures of the IJtunnel on the demand for public transport in Amsterdam”

This study analysed the impact of closures of the IJtunnel on the demand for public transport in GVB’s network in Amsterdam. Based on academic literature the determinants of public transport demand were identified which lead to a conceptual model on public transport demand. This model was applied to a panel of multiple service lines in Amsterdam in order to quantify the effect of the IJtunnel closures. Using fixed effects estimation, this study found an 18,4% decrease of the number of passengers and a 45% reduction of the number of passengerkilometres for the IJtunnel service lines on average per day. Moreover the results suggest a substitution effect from the IJtunnel service lines towards the other service lines in Amsterdam North, where the number of passengers increased by 8,6% and the number of passengerkilometres by 15%. However, this latter effect does not offset the decline of public transport demand on the IJtunnel service lines (both in percentage effects and in absolute terms). In addition, this study found that the IJtunnel closures had a stronger impact during five subsequent weekend closures compared to singular closures. As a consequence of the IJtunnel closures GVB is confronted with extra costs which include a decline of passenger revenues and a subsidy loss. The findings from this study allow GVB to demonstrate the actual effects of the closures of the IJtunnel, which can strengthen their position in the discussion and decision making on future IJtunnel closures.