Beijing air quality program: the synthetic control approach

This paper contributes to the empirical literature on China’s air pollution and builds upon the ideas of Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), and Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2010, 2015). It implements a synthetic control method to assess the effectiveness of Jingjinji region-specific air action plan in reducing the fine particulate matter concentrations in post-2013 Beijing. The results suggest that following the policy enactment, PM2.5 levels in the Chinese capital have dropped by 24.11%, but at most one-fifth of this reduction is attributable to the regional program, as the pollution levels in Beijing decreased by 4.67 μg/m3 relative to the corresponding synthetic control unit. Besides, the analysis of mechanisms responsible for the air quality improvement reveals fundamental changes to final energy structure and an average cutback in consumption of nonrenewable energy products of 47.85%.