First Mile Last Mile (FMLM) Accessibility and its impacts on modal share and emerging motorization patterns. Case of Ruiru Bypass Zone, NMR Kenya

As cities grow, anarchic demand for mobility has been accompanied by highly diverse motorization patterns. In a bid to improve urban mobility, enhance connectivity, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sustain the urban transport system, public transport mainline corridors have garnered significant attention with heavy capital investments being assigned to different forms of mass transit. Notwithstanding this; large-scale investments have failed to entice people to patronize public transportation due to the lack of seamless connectivity to the First Mile and Last Mile (FMLM) of commute trips. Access and egress from transit have continually been overlooked in transportation planning, and have thus become the weakest links in public transportation chains (Krygsman et al., 2004). Consequently, the prevalence of highly polluting low capacity automobiles, auto-dependency, meagre public transport ridership and sporadic intermediate public transportation has become increasingly burdensome for cities.

Against this backdrop, this study scrutinizes the accessibility of the first and last mile and evaluates how this affects a commuter’s modal choice and the city’s motorization patterns. To achieve this two-fold objective, a case study research strategy is adopted where Ruiru Bypass Zone, Kenya is selected for an in-depth analysis of the FMLM phenomena. This traffic analysis zone is conscientiously selected within the context of a developing country and a rapidly urbanizing city region. Premised on a profound review of literature, the study holds that a commuter is a rational utility-maximizing entity, who considers person-, place- and mode- based factors before selecting the preferred travel mode. Through a commuter survey, traffic counts, semi-structured interviews and content analysis, the study builds a comprehensive commuter inventory from which various forms of analyses are performed.

Descriptive analyses provide exhaustive summary statistics on physical environments (travel distance, infrastructure provision, and street attractiveness), social environments (gender, age, income, household size, and auto ownership) and modal environments (modal variability, travel time and travel costs). The study then applies multinomial logit modelling to predict motorization patterns as defined by modal share in the FMLM and line haul. Among the multi- fold factors assessed; infrastructure provision, modal variability, travel cost, auto ownership and income significantly predict motorization, with pronounced moderation by the commuter’s age. The overarching discovery is that FMLM accessibility indeed affects motorization in the FMLM largely (58% explained variance) and moderately (43.1% variance) in the line haul. Notably, increased likelihood of choosing low capacity automobiles is attributed to increase in auto ownership, income and travel costs moderated by age. By contrast, the adoption of active mobility is attributed to lack of an automobile and infrastructure provision moderated by age. Likelihood of selecting public transport is attributed to increased modal variability and lack of auto-ownership. The study also unveils that the conventional 5-minute walk catchment area to access transit is an understatement of actual catchment areas in developing cities.

Lastly, the study provides possible courses of action that can be adopted to intercept auto dependency whilst increasing active transport patronage and public transport ridership. The study pioneers a systematic strategy for FMLM assessment in instigating holistic multimodal transportation and provides projections for further research to enrich this urban transportation theme. It is noted that as cities grow and become increasingly diverse, transportation services need to equally evolve to match up to society’s differing needs.