Uncovering the Impact of Growing Vacant Housing on the Urban Areas in Busan, South Korea

This study explores the spatial and temporal dynamics of vacant housing (VH) in Busan and its impact on urban decline, with a particular focus on resident dissatisfaction. Using KOSIS (Korean Statistics Information Service) data and QGIS mapping from 2000 to 2023, the analysis reveals a steady increase in the vacancy rate, especially after 2010. It tends to be concentrated in old city center districts, such as Jung-gu, Seo-gu, Dong-gu, Yeongdo-gu, Busanjin-gu, and Nam-gu. The growth of aged vacant houses and the dominance of apartmenttype vacancies were also observed through the investigation, and included in the analysis as well. To evaluate the impact of VH on urban decline, the study applied Mixed-Effects and FixedEffects regression models using resident dissatisfaction indicators—pedestrian environment, safety, housing conditions, and moving-out intention—as dependent variables. Individual and district-level control variables were included for each regression model to account for demographic and socioeconomic factors. The results indicate that the vacant housing rate (VHR) shows a negative association with certain dissatisfaction indicators, implying that residents have become accustomed to the presence of vacant houses, that individuals in poorer housing conditions have relocated, or that regeneration initiatives have had a mitigating effect. Moreover, the vacant housing aging rate (VHAR) has a noticeable moderating effect by strengthening the association between vacancy and housing dissatisfaction. It suggests that long-term vacancies may intensify negative perceptions of the urban environment. These findings demonstrate that vacant housing not only reflects but also contributes to urban decline in Busan. Moreover, the age of vacant properties partially but significantly conditions their impact. Thus, this study highlights the importance of tailored urban policies that address both the scale and duration of vacancy and calls for future research on sustainable reuse strategies and the long-term social implications of VH.